Editors Note: (12/6/2011)
Trading Pujols during the season may not have worked out as well as keeping King Albert -you know, with that whole great comeback in the Wild Card Race and that World Series title. However, the foundation of this argument still makes sense as the MLB winter meetings are in full swing. I am happy they held on to Albert for the 2011 season-but the fundamentals still remain for long term viability of an albatross contract.
Why would the St. Louis Cardinals let
Albert Pujols go?
Simple, it would be a wise choice if they cannot sign him for a shorter duration than 10 years. Most respected baseball people think that an Albert contract at the end of the 2011 season could be in the range for 10 years at $30 million per. That is a contract which would sink the Cardinals, much like the A-Rod deal sank the Rangers and Tom Hicks.
St. Louis fans love number 5, but let us look at some reasons why the Cardinals should not sign Pujols to that type of contract:
- Pujols would be 41 at the end of a 10 year deal. The last player to put up great numbers into his 40s is going on trial shortly for things related to performance enhancing help. (Barry Bonds)
- Committed money to Holliday, Wainwright, and Lohse is $40M already for 2012. Having $70M wrapped up into 4 players seems highly unlikely for the Cardinals, or any team east of the American League East.
- The Cardinals are actually in a decent negotiating position based on potential spenders.
The top 10 payrolls in MLB:
- New York Yankees - Mark Texiera is signed through 2016.
- Boston Red Sox - they just traded for Adrian Gonzales and have Kevin Youkilis signed. Gonzales is a free agent at the end of the year, however, I find it hard to believe they do not get a deal done with him.
- Chicago Cubs-this is one of the few potential suitors. The Ricketts family may want to make a splash. What is bigger than getting your rival's best player since Stan Musial? I know.....I just threw up in my mouth typing this.
- Philadelphia Phillies-Ryan Howard is signed through 2016. No chance.
- New York Mets- an outside possibility, however, the Bernie Madoff disaster will make it nearly impossible for the Mets to step up, especially with Santana and Jason Bay signed for a $40M between the two.
- Detroit Tigers-Miguel Cabrera is locked up through 2015. No chance.
- Chicago White Sox- the Sox would be an option perhaps, however, Paul Konerko is signed through 2012, and Adam Dunn is signed through 2014. One or both of these guys would have to be moved. Slim chance, although Kenny Williams has proven to be creative with Reinsdorf's blessing.
- Anaheim Angels-Albert and Arty. Arty has money, and Albert wants money. Kendry Morales is coming off a serious ankle injury, and is signed through this year. (he is arbitration eligible in 2012) More on this option in a moment.
- San Francisco Giants-The World Series Champion Giants have Aubrey Huff signed through 2012. Huff is coming off a tremendous year in 2010, and the Giants won with pitching. I don't see Pujols fitting in the Giants plans.
- Los Angeles Dodgers-the divorce situation of the McCourts' will keep the Dodgers out of this race.
Out of the top 10 payrolls in MLB, there are only 2 potential "suitors" outside of St. Louis. The top two spenders (Yankees and Red Sox) are locked up at first base assuming a Gonzales deal gets done. Six other teams do not make financial or team structure sense. That leaves the Cubs and the Angels as front runners. The Cardinals won't deal with the Cubs, and they won't let him "walk" at the end of the year if it becomes increasingly obvious a deal can't be reached in St. Louis. Advantage Cardinals.
If it becomes obvious that the Cardinals and the Pujols camp will not be able to come to an agreement, expect them to dial up a move with the Angels that will return the Cardinals some younger talent. The Angels have ability to work a deal from a player and financial perspective. Don't be surprised if the "Big A" in Anaheim stands for more than just the stadium by the end of 2011 MLB season.
Until Next Time,
C R Turley
@OldNBABalls
Spring Training gets into full swing this week in Arizona and Florida. My schedule this week includes checking out the White Sox, A's, and the Reds. If you are in Arizona and want to meet me at the park, email me at The Show.
